Expected value connects probability and price
Expected value estimates the average return implied by a probability and an available price across repeated comparable decisions. It is not the expected result of one game, and positive expected value does not guarantee a win.
Practical interpretation
ASD requires an exact current price before calculating market expected value. If price is unavailable, the forecast remains context only.
What ASD avoids
Certainty language, unsupported causality, hidden missing data, and a recommendation created only because a price looks attractive.