How AllSportData moves from raw data to a decision
The ASD pipeline keeps source data, derived features, projections, simulations, confidence, pattern evidence, market comparison, and performance evaluation as separate auditable stages.
1. Source and normalize
Official league data and authorized market feeds are normalized into single-purpose daily research tables. Missing values remain missing; they are never treated as supporting evidence.
2. Build context
Only inputs applicable to the entity, matchup, venue, date, role, and market are joined. Postponed games and unavailable players are removed from active decisions.
3. Estimate and simulate
Context projections estimate fair outcomes. Simulations then test coherent game scripts with discrete baseball events, whole-number scoring, and internally consistent RBI and run paths.
4. Score confidence
Confidence reflects evidence strength, completeness, model agreement, historical calibration, and contradictions. It is not a claim of certainty.
5. Compare with price and evaluate
Price is checked only after the forecast. Qualified published decisions are frozen before play, settled from official results, and retained for performance review.
Research before conclusion
Structured datasets and historical observations are separated from projections and priced decisions.
Explore Research before conclusion →Estimate the expected range
Context models combine applicable team, player, pitching, bullpen, park, weather, and lineup inputs.
Explore Estimate the expected range →Test coherent game paths
Whole-game scripts keep runs, RBI, outs, innings, and player events logically consistent.
Explore Test coherent game paths →Measure completeness and agreement
Confidence accounts for source coverage, sample strength, agreement, and known missing evidence.
Explore Measure completeness and agreement →Validate before promotion
Candidate patterns require chronological testing, sample disclosure, and contradiction tracking.
Explore Validate before promotion →Separate forecast from price
A forecast becomes a priced opportunity only when a current price clears evidence and expected-value gates.
Explore Separate forecast from price →