Projections estimate a fair range before market price
ASD projections combine the applicable season, recent, venue, opponent, lineup, starting-pitcher, bullpen, park, weather, and availability context. Inputs are weighted by relevance, reliability, sample size, and recency. Missing fields reduce completeness instead of being silently imputed.
Operational principles
- Inputs are market-blind until the comparison stage.
- Postponed games are excluded from the active board.
- Player roles and expected workload are checked before prop projections.
- Outputs expose support, contradiction, and missing-data context.
The implementation is reviewed against published results and is expected to change when new evidence justifies a documented revision.