Forecast first, price second
ASD creates a context forecast without using sportsbook price as a reason to prefer a side. The current price is then converted to implied probability and compared with the model. A decision is published only when evidence, edge, and expected value all clear their gates.
Operational principles
- Exact available price required
- No recommendation when price is missing
- Pregame price freezes by scheduled start
- Returns are evaluated from the frozen price
The implementation is reviewed against published results and is expected to change when new evidence justifies a documented revision.